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Surprise! Oversampling Dems Puts Obama in Lead

Saturday, September 15, 2012

ObamaShhh

Obama’s convention bounce seems to have evaporated. Rasmussen today has Romney up 3 points. Today’s Gallup tracking poll had Obama up 5, a loss of 2 points over two days. Gallup uses a 7 day rolling average, so expect this number to continue to come down over the next several days. Undaunted, the media are trumpeting new polls with show Obama with 3 point lead nationally and significant leads in the battleground states of Florida, Ohio and Virginia. As is becoming routine, these new polls again oversample Democrats.

The loudest coverage is touting new NBC/WSJ polls of three key swing states. The polls, purportedly of likely voters, show Obama with 5 point leads in Florida and Virginia and a 7 point lead in Ohio. In VA and FL, the NBC poll assumes an electorate very similar to the one in 2008. In OH, the NBC poll assumes an electorate that is more Democrat than the one in 08. I get a bit tired of saying it, but that isn’t going to happen. The electorate will not be close to as Democrat as in 08, never mind being more Democrat.

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