This memo amounts to an intervention.

It serves to warn all other Republican presidential campaigns of a perfect storm looming on the horizon. Not only does the storm favor Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, but your combined failures/refusals to recognize it are only helping him. If that environment persists, Mr. Cruz will not only win Iowa next year, but win it convincingly.

Your skepticism of Mr. Cruz’s candidacy, and willingness to play ball with a system the average Iowa conservative no longer trusts, is helping to positively brand Mr. Cruz to voters looking for a fighter and an outsider.

And that is what the majority of 2016 Iowa Caucus voters are looking for.

Now before you (and your consultants) get defensive and immediately dismiss this memo as a ridiculous polemic written by a rube, please remember a few things.

My record predicting the outcome of elections in Iowa is proven. For this reason, many of your campaigns have already sought out my take on the lay of the land here. Several of you have already appeared on my radio show to speak to my audience. Some of your campaigns have even asked me for staffing referrals. And I just moderated the first joint candidate forum of the 2016 cycle in front of about a thousand Iowa Caucus voters/activists.

Given this track record, I hope you’ll each take this in the spirit it is intended. I know several of you personally, would be proud to vote for many of you, and am grateful to have such a strong field. Nonetheless, if the caucuses were today you’d all be fighting for second behind Mr. Cruz.

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