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Forget the Pollsters. Ask Your Vegas Odds Maker (He knows who will win the White House)

Written on Sunday, August 12, 2012 by

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Although you have to search for it, there is some really good news out there. There is an excellent possibility that Mitt Romney will win the 2012 election not by a little, but by a landslide. It’s really more of a probability.

The media has trained us to turn to the “expert” pollsters to learn the status of the Presidential race. One day they report that Obama is ahead by 2 points. The next day, it’s a head to head contest. Then, the following day, Romney jumps into a big lead, and so on. Are people really this fickle?

Watching the polls and listening to the pollsters every day will flat wear you out. I’ve got a better idea. Check with some Vegas odds makers. They don’t bet on losers. Wayne Allyn Root is one of the most accurate odds makers in the business today so I checked with him. I’m so glad I did. He took a little darkness out of the future horizon.

For those unfamiliar with Mr. Root, his website shares this and more about him:

Wayne Allyn Root is one of the most dynamic, charismatic, colorful, passionate, fiery, and outspoken Libertarian-conservative political personalities in America today. He is a best-selling author of 7 books, a regular guest on FOX News Channel, as well as hundreds of radio stations from coast to coat. He is an evangelical capitalist and Vegas odds maker. Mr. Root was kind enough to allow me to share his thoughts and predictions with my readers. Wayne’s commentaries, opinions, and predictions can be found at www.WinningEDGEcom.

Mr. Root’s approach to picking a winner is unique and makes much more sense to me than polling does. Polling can be easily biased based on who is doing the polling, what time of day calls are made, and how the questions are phrased. Mr. Root’s technique is far less likely to be biased.

First, he looks at history. Three decades ago at this time in the election cycle Reagan was losing by 9 points. We know how that turned out. It was a Reagan landslide. Today, Obama and Romney are neck and neck according to current polls. This bodes well for Romney. Also, Americans are still not really tuned into the race this early in the cycle. Things will heat up fast after Labor Day. Historically, Independents drift toward the challenger in the later stages of an election cycle. This is more good news for Romney.

As people learn more about Obamacare, the dozens of new taxes, rising unemployment, and feel the impact of the current trend toward higher gas prices, they will think much harder about who will get their vote. If there are any Obama supporters who still can think (debatable) they may just change their minds. Many already have including Obama girl.

Next, Mr. Root calls on logic, reality, and common sense. What a novel idea. I love it. Liberals do not even begin to understand this approach.

He is convinced that not one person who voted for McCain in 2008 will switch to Obama. None! But, millions who voted for Obama will not vote for him this time. When many did vote for Obama in 2008 they really didn’t know him or vet him very well. They basically ignored all the unanswered and disturbing questions about his background and intentions and bought into the dream. Now, the dream is turning into a nightmare for many of those who fell for his pitch.

If Obama supporters are honest with themselves, they have to note Obama’s broken promises and failures. He has disappointed almost everyone in some way, even his liberal friends. Obama’s 2008 campaign promises now appear to have been a classic bait and switch. He was a straight shooter about one thing though. He has kept his word and has redistributed the wealth. Obamacare will help this effort along nicely.

Finally, Mr. Root details specific voting blocks and it is in these we find reason to be very optimistic about a Romney win in November. These are Mr. Root’s specific predictions as he presents them (with his  permission):

*Black voters. Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group. His endorsement of gay marriage has alienated many black church-going Christians. He may get 88% of their vote instead of the 96% he got in 2008. This is not good news for Obama.

*Hispanic voters. Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group. If Romney picks Rubio as his VP running-mate the GOP may pick up an extra 10% to 15% of Hispanic voters (plus lock down Florida). This is not good news for Obama.

*Jewish voters. Obama has been weak in his support of Israel. Many Jewish voters and big donors are angry and disappointed. I predict Obama’s Jewish support drops from 78% in 2008 to the low 60’s. This is not good news for Obama.

*Youth voters. Obama’s biggest and most enthusiastic believers from 4 years ago have graduated into a job market from hell. Young people are disillusioned, frightened, and broke–a bad combination. The enthusiasm is long gone. Turnout will be much lower among young voters, as will actual voting percentages. This not good news for Obama.

*Catholic voters. Obama won a majority of Catholics in 2008. That won’t happen again. Out of desperation to please women, Obama went to war with the Catholic Church over contraception. Now he is being sued by the Catholic Church. Majority lost. This is not good news for Obama.

*Small Business owners. Because I ran for Vice President last time around, and I’m a small businessman myself, I know literally thousands of small business owners. At least 40% of them in my circle of friends, fans and supporters voted for Obama 4 years ago to “give someone different a chance.” I warned them that he would pursue a war on capitalism and demonize anyone who owned a business…that he’d support unions over the private sector in a big way…that he’d overwhelm the economy with spending and debt. My friends didn’t listen. Four years later, I can’t find one person in my circle of small business owner friends voting for Obama. Not one. This is not good news for Obama.

*Blue collar working class whites. Do I need to say a thing? White working class voters are about as happy with Obama as Boston Red Sox fans feel about the New York Yankees. This is not good news for Obama.

*Suburban moms. The issue isn’t contraception–it’s having a job to pay for contraception. Obama’s economy frightens these moms. They are worried about putting food on the table. They fear for their children’s future. This is not good news for Obama.

*Military Veterans. McCain won this group by 10 points. Romney is winning by 24 points. The more our military vets got to see of Obama, the more they disliked him. This is not good news for Obama.

Add it up. Is there one major group where Obama has gained since 2008? Will anyone in America wake up on election day saying “I didn’t vote for Obama 4 years ago. But he’s done such a fantastic job, I can’t wait to vote for him today.” Does anyone feel that a vote for Obama makes their job more secure”?

After he published his predictions, he added a few more encouraging thoughts: 1. Romney is raising more money than Obama. He has done so for the last three months. 2. Some key Democrats are distancing themselves from Obama. 3. And, his recent comment, “You didn’t build that.” is going to hurt him from now til the election.

Thank you Wayne Allyn Root. You have given us some great insight into the reality of the current presidential race and offered us a solid basis for hope for future change in the right (excuse the pun) direction.

Be sure to share this good news with your friends. We all need some good news.

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