The presidential election was nearly four months ago but data is just coming in and providing clues to why President Obama easily defeated GOP candidate Mitt Romney. 

In 2012, tor the first time in history blacks voted at a higher rate than any other group. Contrarily the white vote dipped as many voters opted not to go to the polls.

Had whites voted with the same turnout of 2004, Mitt Romney would have likely won the election.

The data, aggregated by William H. Frey, a demographer with the Brooks Institution, also showed that 2012 voter turnout was roughly 58 percent, down from the 62 percent that voted in 2008. 

According to census date whites and blacks will remain the two largest voting bodies, at least for the next decade. 

And though Latinos are the biggest factor to population growth, they comprise just 11 percent of eligible voters.

The data also confirms what many in the Republican party feared going into the election: Romney, a former governor of Massachusetts, was a particularly weak GOP candidate.

If white voters showed up to the polls in the numbers they did in 2004, when George W. Bush was running for re-election, the swing states of Ohio, Florida, Virginia and Pennsylvania would have tipped Republican. 

Those votes would have won Romney the electoral college as well as the popular vote. 


Continue reading →