“I think we will see a lower turnout,” said Star Parker, an African-American GOP activist. In 2008, “many were looking to make history,” but disillusionment with Obama and better GOP outreach to African-American social conservatives could make an election-winning difference in 2012, she said. In 2012, “he could lose up to 10 percent,” Parker concluded.

In the mid-term elections, African-American turnout declined from 13 percent of the electorate in 2008 to 10 percent of the electorate, according to exit polls.

African-Americans backed Obama by 95 percent in 2008 and voted in record numbers compared to their 2004 turnout. The increased 2008 turnout boosted his win by 4 percentage points, to a margin of 7.2 percent, over Republican John McCain.

But a recent Pew poll of many groups in the United States showed that African-Americans had the steepest drop in confidence about the country’s economic future. Since April 2010. their confidence level has fallen 22 points, and was just 40 percent in June. In comparison, college graduates’ confidence level fell 15 points to 35 percent and independents’ fell 12 points to 24 percent.

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