“Barring an unexpected reelection landslide by President Obama, Republicans are at least slightly favored to take the Senate. It’s just a basic matter of numbers,” says Larry Sabato, the University of Virginia political analyst, in a new report.

He predicts that Republicans are likely to win Republican Senate seats in North Dakota, Missouri, Montana, and Nebraska. He also sees chances for the GOP to take seats in Virginia, New Mexico and Wisconsin. A sweep would give the Republicans 54 Senate seats and make Sen. Mitch McConnell the majority leader.

And in jarring news for the Democrats, he said that the GOP can “compete” and possibly take Democratic-held seats in Florida, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Connecticut, West Virginia, and Hawaii. Additional victories in six of those would give the GOP a filibuster-proof 60-seat super majority that would effectively ice President Obama’s agenda, if he’s reelected, or greatly boost a GOP president.

Continue reading →