Turns out there is a silver lining to five justices on the U.S. Supreme Court committing what amounts to cultural self-immolation last week — it winnowed the crowded field of 2016 GOP presidential candidates considerably.

After analyzing the historical demographics of the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucuses, along with the overall environment on the ground, I’m confident we already know who can win here next February and who cannot.

Championship Tier
Given the demographic dominance of evangelicals in the Iowa Caucuses, where they’re about 60 percent of the vote, as well as Iowa Republicans’ documented disdain for activist judges (see Iowa’s historic 2010 judicial retention election), a candidate who responded timidly to last week’s unleashing of the Rainbow Jihad isn’t going to win the Iowa caucuses.

Unfortunately, most of the field wasn’t exactly a profile in courage.

That means one of these four candidates, who responded strongly and forcefully, is going to win the Iowa caucuses.

Ted Cruz — His weeks-long dalliance with so-called “Obamatrade” cost him momentum with activists here, so he’s hoping he rediscovered his mojo on this issue. He remains the only candidate who could potentially receive both of the most coveted endorsements in the state — Rep. Steve King and pro-family activist Bob Vander Plaats.

Mike Huckabee — He is certainly speaking conservative activists’ love language with his tough talk on the courts and the U.S. Constitution. But would he really follow through on what he’s saying as president? Consider he publicly criticized and undermined the fight to defund Obamacare in 2013, and that wasn’t nearly as radical as defying the system’s judicial supremacy canard would be.

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